Climate Change and the Environment
Note that this page is just a short summary;
for the complete picture, see the “Full Version”
Is CO2 really the enemy..?
Re-examining how we take care of our little planet
Yes, the earth does seem to be warming up - but is it an imminent threat to life on earth..? Is it really because of Carbon Dioxide..? And if our planet is feeling a little under the weather, is there anything we can do to nurse it back to health..? A change in prescription maybe...
When you start digging into the prevailing views on carbon dioxide and “Climate Change”, things just don’t look right.
So I decided to start with a clean slate and get back to basics - put aside the assumptions, look at the well-established facts and data, follow the science one step at a time, and see where the breadcrumbs lead...
JC Gobeil - Retired Geologist - Canada
We need to figure out if one of these systems stands out as the primary driver of climate change.
Introduction
We live on a beautiful and unique planet that’s full of life - it’s INCREDIBLY precious, and it’s all we have!
If we’re doing something that’s putting it at risk, then we’d better do something about it. But first we must make sure we’ve identified the problem, its severity, and the actual cause. If we get it wrong, we may not have a second chance!
The prevailing view is that the planet’s temperature is rising way too much and that the carbon dioxide we’re pumping into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuel is the primary cause.
I, and a good number of other scientists, strongly differ with this view. Yes, the planet does seem to be warming, and perhaps at a somewhat faster rate than would be expected “naturally”, but it’s nowhere near “dangerous levels”, and it’s not an emergency. Furthermore, I intend to show that carbon dioxide has little, if anything, to do with it, and that a more likely cause has been largely ignored or summarily dismissed by climate scientists. Contrary to public opinion, the science is NOT settled - we still have a lot to learn…
As for the commonly repeated claim (from a poorly conducted study) that 97% of scientists agree with the prevailing view, Ross McKitrick of the Fraser Institute, Canada’s top think-tank, has this to say: “Not only is there no 97% consensus among climate scientists, many misunderstand core issues”.
And besides, as opposed to political decisions, scientific issues are not resolved by consensus; theories need to be supported by verifiable observations, and then go through a rigorous validation process before they can be accepted as scientific facts. With regards to the climate, when all hypotheses have been honestly and openly analyzed and tested, maybe then we can reach a consensus, and perhaps act on it. Suppressing information and ignoring opposing views is not science at all, it’s dogma - science is asking questions; it’s a perpetual process of seeking better understanding.
Is there really a problem with the climate..?
Is the temperature getting too high..? Is there a “climate emergency”..? Are sea levels rising too much..? There’s no simple answer. First, the climate has always changed; it changes from year to year, decade to decade, and century to century; it always has, it always will. The question is – is it now changing too much or too rapidly... and if it is, are humans causing it…
Looking back at the past 600 million years, we can see that the temperature hovered around 25°C, except for three relatively short periods where it dipped to around 10°C (the major ice ages). The first humanoids made their appearance during the coldest part of the current ice age (about 2.5 million years ago), and it seems we are just beginning to pull out of it. Geologically speaking, we’ll be out of this ice age when the planet’s overall temperature reaches 18°C and there are no more ice caps - and if history repeats itself, that might take a few million years. Sea levels will rise as well, but so gradually that we’ll have plenty of time to adjust. So, nothing to worry about, right..? Unless - well, unless we mess things up…
Yes, over the past couple of hundred years, temperatures have been rising a little faster than expected, and we suspect human activities may be contributing to that “above normal” rise. But let’s be clear, although we do need to look into it, it’s not an emergency (at least not yet).
So what have we been doing that might be causing this..? The trendy and generally accepted answer is that we’ve been spewing too much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere (from burning fossil fuels), and this excess CO2 (a so-called “greenhouse gas”) traps heat and causes the planet temperature to rise abnormally. At first glance, it does seem to make sense – over the past two or three hundred years, we have been burning a lot of fossil fuels. But does that premise actually stand up to scrutiny..?
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This needs to be looked at a little more closely – and it all comes down to heat/energy transfer. We need to get back to basics...
Energy moves through the atmosphere in many different ways… It’s enough to make your head spin (and these are just the ones “off the top of my head”)
How the atmosphere affects temperature…
First, let’s have a look at the so-called greenhouse gases. I say “so-called” because, although they absorb radiation, they’re not automatically planet-warming. They should be referred to at Radiation Absorbing Gases (RAGS). If their radiation bands lie within the planet radiation spectrum, they are “trapping” some heat in and warming the planet; but if their radiation bands lie in the incoming solar radiation spectrum, they return some of that energy outward into space, therefore helping cool the planet. If their absorption bands lie in both the sun’s and the planet’s spectra then, depending on the strength and position of their bands, they could be either net-cooling or net-warming.
The overall effect of each RAG is also dependent on its relative abundance in the atmosphere. As we can see above, water - which is 10 times more abundant in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide - really stands out on all counts (and that’s not even taking into account the fact that clouds also reflect energy); but it’s usually summarily dismissed as the driver of climate change because - they say - its concentration in the atmosphere is controlled by the planet’s temperature which in turn is controlled primarily by CO2, which we humans emit in large quantities by burning fossil fuels. We need to determine if that holds water - so to speak…
We need to first take a closer look at carbon dioxide, and see if the prevailing view that it’s the primary driver of climate change makes scientific sense.
So, what about Carbon Dioxide..?
Let’s take a closer look at carbon dioxide. Since rising CO2 levels has been determined by climate scientists to be “the main cause of climate change”, we want to check out if the big push to “decarbonize” is justified…
First, it may be fitting to point out that the human body is made up of about 65% Oxygen, 18% Carbon, 10% Hydrogen, and the remaining 7% are various other elements. In other words, we are about 83% Carbon and Oxygen (the two elements of CO2). That carbon comes mainly from plants that absorb carbon dioxide from the air - calling it “pollution”, or even “a poison”, when it’s the primary building block of nearly all life on earth is a bit far-fetched - like saying water is a pollutant. Yes, you can drown in water, but we still drink it. Now, how much is too much, and is it affecting our climate negatively... those are valid questions.
Are carbon dioxide levels too high..?
Plants need CO2 to grow, and greenhouse growers have figured out that the current CO2 level of ~420ppm is too low for optimum plant growth, so most commercial growers pump CO2 into their greenhouses and raise the level to somewhere between 600 and 1,500ppm (depending on the crop) - up to four times the current level in the atmosphere. So, as far as most plants are concerned, they’d be perfectly happy with more CO2. Incidentally, plants cannot live with CO2 level below 150ppm, and if plants die off, practically all land-based life on earth would die off as well - and we came dangerously close to that point 20,000 to 50,000 years ago (when CO2 levels dropped to about 200ppm). And as mentioned earlier, CO2 levels during the Jurassic period were 5 to 7 time higher than today. So if one is concerned about an “Extinction Level Event” related to CO2 levels, we have a lot more wiggle room on the upside than on the downside.
As for us humans, long exposure to CO2 levels above 1,500ppm can cause minor discomfort in some individuals. Maximum permissible level in the US workplace is 5.000ppm. Extended exposure to levels above 10,000ppm is considered unsafe for humans - other life forms are generally more tolerant.
So we can conclude that levels somewhere between 1,000 and 1,500ppm would be much better for plants and still perfectly fine for human/animal life. The IPCC considers a “safe level” to be 350ppm (that only makes sense if you believe that CO2 is the main driver of climate change, and that we are in a climate emergency).
Since early land plants and animals first appeared on our planet (about 800 million years ago), carbon dioxide levels have generally been much higher than they are now; for example, during the age of dinosaurs and plant and animal life flourished, not only was the temperature much higher than today, CO2 levels were 5 to 7 times higher than today! The only time over the past 600 million years CO2 levels were as low as they are today was during the Karoo Ice Age, about 300 million years ago!
So, CO2 levels evidently are nowhere near “critically high levels” for life on earth; in fact, we’re at critically low levels. And as we saw earlier, global temperatures are at record low levels as well. Has the public been duped by the doomsayers..?
But what about carbon dioxide causing “global warming”…
Yes, that’s definitely the prevailing view - and it needs to be re-examined…
As we saw earlier, CO2 is a RAG (radiation-absorbing gas) and is deemed by climate activists to be the most important. As mentioned earlier, the idea that CO2 “traps” heat like a sheet of glass or a blanket over the atmosphere, and is the primary driver of “climate change”, is not new; it’s been kicked around for well over a century. But is it a valid hypothesis..?
The reasoning generally goes something like this:
Sunlight reaches the planet’s surface and warms it up.
The planet radiates most of that heat back into the atmosphere at longer wavelengths.
CO2, because of its particular molecular structure, “captures” some of that heat before it can “escape” into space and radiates it back towards the earth; so the heat is sort of “trapped” (just like in a greenhouse) and the planet gets warmer.
Burning fossil fuels adds CO2 to the atmosphere.
The more CO2 in the atmosphere, the greater the warming effect – and we have been burning a lot of fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas, propane, etc) over the past few hundred years.
If that warming gets out of control, we will face excessively high temperatures, and some say this will lead to more extreme “weather events”, more floods, more forest fires, the icecaps will melt, ocean levels will rise, and eventually it could destroy most of life on earth.
Scary stuff..! But does it stand up to scrutiny…
Note that the effect radiation-absorbing gases might have on incoming solar energy is usually ignored, seldom mentioned, or summarily dismissed.
As I said, it does seem to make sense – especially since carbon dioxide levels and temperature do seem to rise and fall together (barring other significant geological or cosmic events, and providing you don’t go back too far in time). As for floods, forest fires, and extreme “weather events”, there’s no clear evidence that those are on the increase globally, at least not for now - eventually, as global temperatures increase and more energy is “pumped” into the atmosphere, it will likely lead to a somewhat more turbulent climate.
To top it off, a long list of seemingly well informed and respected organizations and scientists support these views. A quote from the United Nation’s website: “Burning fossil fuels generates greenhouse gas emissions that act like a blanket wrapped around the Earth, trapping the sun’s heat and raising temperatures.”
True, there are disagreements on how much CO2 causes how much warming; or if more energy is absorbed on the “shoulders” of the absorption bands than at the peaks; or how much is emitted by nature and how much by man; or how much is absorbed by plants and oceans; or how long we have before the climate “apocalypse”, etc. etc… however, they all link CO2 levels directly to temperature, and seem to ignore everything else. But if the premise is not supported by verifiable observations, all this is like arguing about how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.
We need to go back to basics and examine the premise. We need to look a little closer at the facts…
Can carbon dioxide actually “trap” heat emitted by the planet..?
Years ago, when I began to look into this and checked out the absorption spectrum of CO2 in relation to the emission spectra of the sun and the planet, it struck me that things didn’t seem to “line up” as expected. So I did more digging and more ruminating - still it kept leading me back to the same “off-the-beaten-track” conclusions. Let me explain…
As we saw earlier, radiation-absorbing gases “capture” energy within specific frequency bands (ranges), dissipate some of that energy to surrounding gases, and return a portion of it back towards its source. The only band within the carbon dioxide spectrum that overlaps significantly with the planet’s emission spectrum peaks around 16μm - just to the right of the atmospheric window (see the graph above). This is at very low energy levels, and corresponds to temperatures in the range of -60 to -100°C (-76 to -148°F) - that’s considerably colder than the average surface temperature of the planet (about 15°C). So any of that long wave energy that’s returned to the planet’s surface by CO2 molecules barely has any effect on its temperature, and may even help cool it off a bit (2nd Law of Thermodynamics).
A couple of other bands in the CO2 spectrum (at around 2 and 2.7μm) lie near the tail end of the sun’s spectrum (in the infrared) - those “return” a portion of the sun’s heat energy back to space, and have a slight cooling effect. That section of the sun’s spectrum doesn’t carry that much energy, but it still most likely amounts to more than the planet’s radiative output in the 16μm range (where the previously mentioned band lies).
Lastly, one band sits right on the “border” between the sun’s spectrum and that of the planet (at around 4.3μm) and likely has barely any effect either way.
Now, for a gas to be classified as a “greenhouse gas” or “planet-warming gas”, its absorption spectrum needs to lie within the earth’s emission spectrum.
For a gas to be classified as a “planet-cooling gas”, its absorption bands need to lie within the sun’s emission spectrum at wavelengths shorter than 4.5μm.
If the absorption bands of a gas lie within both warming and cooling ranges, their relative number, magnitudes, and positions in relation to incoming and outgoing energy determine if that gas is net-warming or net-cooling. Carbon dioxide is in this category. More work needs to be done on this, but my contention is that the net effect of carbon dioxide on the planet’s temperature is negligible either way.
So, unless CO2 is some magical substance that defies the laws of physics and thermodynamics, it cannot possibly be classified as a potent “greenhouse” or planet-warming gas, and cannot be the primary driver of climate change. That theory needs to be put to rest once and for all.
Maybe I’m missing something here; but if I am correct, then many scientists have failed to see the obvious… And from looking at suggested lab experiments to supposedly “demonstrate” the greenhouse (warming) effect of CO2, I tend to believe the latter.
Most of those experiments (including those found on highly regarded institutions' websites such as NASA, National Geographic, and The Royal Society) call for heat sources that are in the 1,000 to 3,000°C range, well above 300°C (therefore in the sun’s visible and infrared range, NOT in the planet’s black body radiation range - example); a few even suggest using sunlight as a heat source. This is laughable! Those experiments only demonstrate that CO2 has planet-cooling potential! And as if that’s not bad enough, many introduce water vapor into the CO2 mix and not in the control container, making the results totally meaningless.
And note that these experiments only demonstrate how much energy is transmitted to the gases within the containers (the atmosphere), and not how much IR energy is re-emitted back out of the container.
To better illustrate the effect of CO2 on climate, may I propose an alternative:
This experiment should be carried out in a cold room, with the temperature set at least below 10°C (absolute 0 would be ideal, but a little uncomfortable)
First, set things up more or less as you would for most “climate change” demonstrations (with a few changes): Prepare two similar clear, thin, dry plastic bottles - empty a small pouch of desiccant in each - fill one with nitrogen (or any other radiation transparent gas), fill the other with CO2* - hang electronic temperature sensors** inside each, and seal the openings with putty. Place a 100W incandescent light bulb between the two containers, one inch away from each (at a filament temperature of around 2,700°C, the bulb duplicates incoming solar radiation in the visible and infrared range). This setup simulates the effect CO2 has on incoming solar energy (atmosphere-cooling potential).
A few feet away, duplicate the above setup, except use a specially prepared light bulb connected through a rheostat (Use a same size bulb as in #1; spray it first with metallic paint, then with black paint, making it a reasonably good “black body” - Note that it may be easier to maintain the required temperature with a low wattage bulb and a low voltage system) This setup simulates the effect CO2 has on the planet’s outgoing energy (atmosphere-warming potential).
Once all the components have reached room temperature (say 5-10°C), turn on the light bulbs and adjust the rheostat so that the bulb in setup #2 maintains a steady 15°C (monitored with an infrared thermometer); at that temperature, the bulb duplicates the planet’s black body emission spectrum.
Let things stand until the temperature in all containers stabilize (about an hour), record each of them and subtract the nitrogen temp. from the CO2 temp. in each setup. Then double the result of the #2 simulation*** and compare it with the value obtained from the #1 simulation. The setup that shows the greatest temperature differential is dominant and determines whether CO2 is an atmosphere-warming gas or an atmosphere-cooling gas. Place your bets…
* The CO2 and nitrogen should be from compressed gas cylinders. Nitrogen, being radiation transparent, sets the baseline (ambient air contains H2O and many other RAG’s). Most online “experiments” suggest producing CO2 by mixing vinegar and baking soda, or dropping a few seltzer tablets in water. This introduces water vapor into the mix and makes the results totally unacceptable.
** The temperature sensors need to be shielded all around with aluminum foil (not touching the sensors), with openings top and bottom to allow circulation.
*** The planet radiates spherically and continuously, whereas solar energy reaches only half the surface at any one time - doubling the result of the outgoing energy simulation therefore makes the results a little more realistic.
Ok, those gases are not the same molecular weight, there is no significant temperature and pressure gradient within the bottles (as there is in the atmosphere), the gas concentrations are “abnormal”, etc., but it would still provide meaningful results since we’re looking for relative values, not absolutes - certainly more relevant than the results from the usual proposed experiments.
The same setup could be used to demonstrate the effects of water vapor on temperature by replacing the CO2 with H2O (simply pour a little water in the bottles and wait until the humidity within the bottle stabilizes).
If a reader has access to the facilities and equipment needed to run such an experiment, I’d be very interested in the results - could be an interesting science class project…
Now, as for the other radiation-absorbing gases, one of methane’s bands does line up with the planet’s emissions, but another is in the sun’s infrared range (at lower intensity but higher energy level); so its net effect is likely to be close to neutral (the fact that it’s more “effective” at absorbing infrared than CO2 then becomes practically irrelevant), especially since its concentration in the atmosphere is about 200 times less than CO2, and 2,000 times less than H2O - so I think we can put that one back on the shelf. Farmers can continue to grow rice and let their cows burp to their heart’s content.
Nitrous Oxide’s concentration is infinitesimal (1,300 times less than CO2, and 13,000 times less than H2O) and its absorption bands very narrow - a small blip on the radar. Even the most acrobatic of computations and far-fetched theories cannot alter those facts; so, regardless of its molecular makeup, it can also be dismissed as a major contributor to global warming.
I believe both Methane and Nitrous Oxide barely deserve any mention when it comes to “climate change” (unless one is desperate for more reasons to expand bans and controls).
Side note: 5 to 10% of the solar energy that reaches the planet is reflected from the surface (off water, snow, rocks, etc.) and is not absorbed (the reflectivity of a substance is referred to as its “albedo” in scientific literature). Those reflected energy waves may change in phase and amplitude, but they do retain their frequency/wavelength. So energy reflected from the planet does overlap with absorption bands of carbon dioxide in the infrared. In other words, energy reflected from the earth’s surface could, at first glance, be “intercepted” by CO2 molecules and add to its warming effect.
But that energy originates from the sun and needs to first penetrate the atmosphere before it reaches the surface, and it encounters those same radiation-absorbing molecules which “capture” and return a portion of that energy back into space. And since only 5-10% of the radiation is reflected from the surface, there’s about 90% more incoming than outgoing energy intercepted, resulting in a net reduction of energy absorbed by the planet. Furthermore, since those CO2 molecules are continuously “energized” to saturation by direct sunlight, they simply cannot absorb any more - so most of the radiation reflected from the planet’s surface escapes into space unimpeded. Conclusion: CO2’s effect on reflected energy is next to nil.
Now, what about the fact that temperature and CO2 levels seem to move synchronously..? Generally yes - all else being equal, and in the short term, they do tend to move more or less in tandem. But is it one causing the other? (and if so, which is causing which?) or is it something else causing both to change..?
CO2 is highly soluble in water, and its solubility increases as temperature decreases and decreases as the temperature increases (inverse relationship). So it stands to reason that as temperatures drop and oceans get colder, they absorb large volumes of CO2 (and significant amounts also get trapped in ice sheets); and as the ocean temperature rises again (and the ice melts), much of that trapped CO2 is released - just like CO2 bubbles out of soda pop as it warms up (referred to as “degassing”). Ice core evidence dating back about 250,000 years indicate that temperature increases have generally preceded atmospheric CO2 level increases by about 800 years, suggesting that temperature changes cause changes in CO2 levels - not the other way around. So we have to conclude that something else causes a rise in ocean temperatures, which in turn causes CO2 levels in the atmosphere to rise. Over the long run though, that synchronism between CO2 and temperature is not even consistent due to numerous other factors that affect the temperature. Here is what a group of Czech scientists have to say on the subject: A climate declaration from the Czech Republic .
Methane and nitrous oxide display similar solubility properties to CO2, so their levels in the atmosphere will generally correlate with those of CO2, also with some input from human activities.
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Putting things into perspective
There has not been any direct and consistent correlation between temperature and CO2 levels in the distant past...
CO2 levels of about 400ppm are nowhere near “at an all-time high”, or “dangerously high”…
Fact is, over the past 600 million years, the only time CO2 levels were as low as they are now was during the Karoo ice age, about 300 million years ago..!
Note that climate alarmists are careful not to go back further than 2 or 3 million years (that’s back to the deepest portion of the current ice age); an extremely narrow time slot, geologically speaking - definitely not “all time” - but it does make their numbers (and graphs) look good. Multicellular plant and animal life appeared on earth around 600 million years ago - this is the time period we need to focus on (the estimated age of the planet is about 4.5 billion years).
Views from a few prominent scientists: Physics Nobel laureate Dr. John Clauser has spoken out against the climate change agenda, calling it "a dangerous corruption of science that threatens the global economy and the well-being of billions of people." William Happer and Richard Lindzen, both respected climate scientists, wrote that the damage from carbon dioxide emissions has been exaggerated by “an unscientific method of analysis based on consensus, peer review, government opinion, models that don't work, and cherry-picking.” Viv Forbes, geologist and Carbon Sense Coalition founder describes carbon capture as a “silly scheme devised by green zealots to sacrifice billions of dollars and scads of energy to bury this harmless, invisible, life-supporting gas in the hope of appeasing the global warming gods.”
Richard Lindzen, Professor Emeritus of MIT, recently spoke in Brussels, at the invitation of the Hungarian political think tank MCC: "So here we are, confronted with policies that destroy western economies, impoverish the working middle class, condemn billions of the world’s poorest to continued poverty and increased starvation, leave our children despairing over the alleged absence of a future, and will enrich the enemies of the West who are enjoying the spectacle of our suicide march, a march that the energy sector cowardly accepts, being too lazy to exert the modest effort needed to check what is being claimed. As Voltaire once noted, “Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities”. Hopefully, we will awaken from this nightmare before it is too late."
I would sum it up this way:
“The whole anti-carbon, anti-fossil-fuel movement is a giant boondoggle.”
Wikipedia - Boondoggle, def.: “A boondoggle is a project that is considered a waste of both time and money, yet is often continued due to extraneous policy or political motivations.”
So, assuming I’m correct in my analysis, we can dismiss carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide as significant contributors to climate change. We need to keep digging…
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4
If it’s not Carbon Dioxide, what else could it be..?
Could it be direct heat sources..?
This is somewhat basic, but it’s worth mentioning. Combustion, oxidation, friction, electric currents, air conditioners, power plants, etc. all add energy directly to the climate system and contribute to “warming”. Individually, any one of those may not seem like much, but do they add up to a worrisome amount..?
Over the past couple of hundreds of years, industrial activities and the burning of fossil fuels have resulted in a significant increase in heat outputs (I’m leaving out forest fires because there have always been forest fires). How significant is it? It’s difficult to quantify, but it’s estimated that humanity currently consumes something in the order of 15 to 20 TWh (terawatt/hour) of energy from various sources - that’s about 10,000 times less than the total amount of solar energy continuously reaching the earth’s surface (~170,000 TWh). To put it another way, solar energy reaching the planet in one hour could power the world for one year. So compared to the sun, our direct heat contribution to the system is negligible; definitely not enough to affect the planet’s overall temperature significantly (except locally, where heat outputs are concentrated, such as in large cities and industrial centers).
And that leads us to the role of water in the atmosphere…
It’s estimated that H2O (in all its states) makes up about 0.4% of the atmosphere, that’s about 10 times more than CO2, 2,000 times more than Methane, and 13,000 times more than Nitrous Oxide. Not only that, the absorption spectrum of H2O is considerably more significant than that of CO2. And most “climate scientists” do agree that water is the most potent “greenhouse gas”, but it is summarily dismissed as a driver of climate change. I believe it’s a serious mistake, especially when you consider the combined effects of moisture and clouds…
Their arguments generally go something like this:
“CO2, and to a lesser extent CH4 and N2O, trap heat and “cause” the temperature to rise; this results in greater evaporation and increased moisture in the atmosphere.” (The first part of that statement, as we have determined earlier, is questionable - they’re claiming the tail wagging the dog.)
“That extra moisture traps more heat, sets up a positive feedback loop, and “amplifies” the warming effect of CO2, CH4 and N2O by a factor of two or even three.” (Only true if #1 above is true; and, as we’ll see later, the fact that moisture does create positive feedback loops is actually the key to understanding its dominant role in controlling the climate. And note that IF CO2 was a significant planet-warming gas, an increase in CO2 concentration would warm up the planet and cause more CO2 to be released from the oceans - also a positive feedback loop.)
“The amount of water vapor present in the atmosphere is in direct relation to the temperature.” (Generally true)
“The amount of water in the atmosphere varies greatly from day to day, or even hour to hour, so it could not be responsible for long term climate change.” (Locally, true, and it does affect the weather; but the total amount of moisture in the atmosphere globally is what affects the climate, and that varies very little from year to year)
“The water cycle is a “naturally occurring phenomenon” and not directly affected by human activities (i.e. can’t pin it on “big oil” - their favorite boogeyman), so it could not possibly be the driver of modern day climate change.” (We will see later how man can affect the water cycle significantly.)
“Water doesn’t accumulate in the atmosphere; it is short-lived compared to carbon dioxide which stays in the atmosphere for years, or even centuries.” (True, individual water molecules typically don’t remain in the atmosphere as long as CO2 molecules, but that’s completely irrelevant if they’re continuously being replenished; and depending on various factors, both moisture and CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere do vary over time - CO2 simply has a somewhat longer cycle. And the very fact that the water cycle is relatively short offers some hope that if the problem is associated with moisture, and if we are responsible for disturbing the balance, then it should be easier to correct. And the water cycle is not as “complicated” as the CO2 cycle, so it may also be easier for us to improve our computer models)
And again, there is usually little mention of the role clouds, moisture, and CO2 have on incoming solar energy - most seem to assume that all radiation-absorbing gases are planet-warming gases.
Renowned hydrologist Dr. Demetris Koutsoyiannis of the National Technical University of Athens, and 2014 recipient of the prestigious International Hydrology Dooge medal (UNESCO and World Meteorological Organization), in a thorough and very well-researched 2021 technical paper, Rethinking Climate, Climate Change, and Their Relationship with Water, concludes that “water is the main element that drives climate, rather than just being affected by climate as commonly thought”.
Obviously, the role water plays in determining the climate needs to be more closely examined…
Water vapor’s absorption spectrum dramatically overshadows that of CO2, especially when you factor in their relative abundance in the atmosphere (as shown above), so its effect on the climate is immeasurably more significant. And when you factor in the effect of clouds, CO2’s role is insignificant. If Methane and Nitrous Oxide were scaled in as well, their absorption bands would be smaller than the dot at the end of this sentence - so regardless of their molecular makeup, their effect on the climate is don’t even deserve a mention, even compared to CO2 (contrary to the claims of many climate scientists - you can only stretch things so far).
To recap, water is found in the atmosphere in all of its three states: as a gas (water vapor), as a liquid (fog, clouds, and rain), and as a solid (snow, clouds and hail). It’s an amazing substance; it’s like the Swiss Army Knife in the planet’s climate toolbox.
It all begins with the oceans:
Oceans absorb a large portion of the solar energy.
They have a huge thermal storage capacity.
They radiate some of that energy into space.
They transmit energy to the atmosphere by conduction and phase change.
They help moderate the temperature and control the climate (thermal stability).
They “transport” heat to cooler parts of the world (ocean currents). Note that ocean and air currents can have a major effect on local climates.
They provide huge surface areas for evaporation (and cloud formation), and air currents then “transport” that moisture to land masses where it’s essential for life.
Water vapor:
Water vapor (humidity) is invisible and is the most potent of all radiation-absorbing gases. And since its absorption bands lie in both the solar spectrum and the planet spectrum, it acts as both a cooling gas and a warming gas. But, as we’ve seen earlier, its net effect is generally thought to be a warming effect because it apparently captures a somewhat larger percentage of the planet’s radiant energy than of the sun’s incoming energy (although more work needs to be done on that as well).
Clouds:
Clouds are, say, a little more… “complicated”
They “trap” heat – Since they’re dense accumulations of tiny droplets or flakes, they physically trap warmer air below them, and cause the formation of low-level convection cells. They also absorb and reflect some of the planet’s black body radiation back to the surface.
The process of cloud formation acts as a giant phase-change “heat pump” – When water evaporates from the planet’s surface, it “draws” a considerable amount of heat from it; when that moisture condenses and forms clouds, it releases that heat into the atmosphere. That energy triggers convection currents, storms, or maybe cyclones that carry the warmer air higher up and draw cooler air back down; this turbulence “uses up” a considerable amount of energy, and the rest is eventually released into space as molecular radiation.
And as we’ve seen earlier, clouds absorb and return solar energy back into space, and they also reflect solar radiation - Clouds have a high albedo; dense clouds can reflect up to 90% of solar radiation (not just in the infrared, but in the visible range as well). So they prevent a good portion of the sun’s heat from reaching the planet’s surface in the first place – the more cloud cover, the more shading and the cooler the planet. It’s not rocket science! This is likely the most significant factor affecting the climate. True, clouds reflect heat back to the planet as well, but if incoming energy is reduced, there is proportionately less heat to dissipate.
So clouds can affect heat transfer in many different ways - they are the ultimate regulators - and although they do trap some heat below, their net effect is cooling (and most climate scientists do seem to agree on that). There are claims that wispy, high-altitude clouds may have a slight warming effect, but I haven’t seen any conclusive evidence to support this. I believe their net effect is more or less neutral.
In other words, the net effect of water vapor is most likely on the warming side; but clouds, with their significant cooling potential, are almost certainly the determining factor.
Yes, obviously many other factors affect the climate, but it seems quite clear that, in the long run, none are as important and as consistent as the role moisture and clouds play.
Most climatologists agree that cloud cover affects the planet’s temperature ; but that it is the dominant factor when it comes to controlling the planet’s temperature and the climate is not widely accepted because, you know, 97% of scientists...
As mentioned earlier, there’s no consistent link between CO2 levels and temperature in the geological past, but it seems there is a strong long-term correlation between the level of moisture in the atmosphere and the average global temperature. Yes, it’s a feedback loop but, because of cloud formations, it’s a self-regulating feedback loop.
Moisture and the climate
Let’s look again at our graph of the planet’s historical temperature (there are a few of those on the net, with variations - this is my own version). Although not all identical (it depends on who compiled the data) most tell a similar story. Note that these graphs show the long-term trends/averages, and there’s a healthy margin of error – in the short term, there are always fluctuations; an actual temperature tracing (impossible without more precise data) would likely look like the tracing of a seismograph.
We see that, over the past 600 million years, global temperature has fluctuated somewhere between 10 and 30°C, and about 80% of the time, it hovered between 20 and 30°C. There has to be some kind of built-in mechanism that keeps the temperature within that range. When something (say a solar, cosmic, or geological event) triggers a serious drop in temperature (an ice age), the “heater” kicks in (possibly triggered by dust storms blanketing the ice sheets and reducing their albedo) and, before too long, brings it back up to “normal”.
This is somewhat puzzling… What on earth controls the temperature so consistently..? What prevents “runaway” warming..?
Scientists have looked at solar activity, volcanic activity, spin axis variations, continental drift, polar shifts, meteorites, the earth’s orbit, etc. as possible determinants – nothing apparently can account for it. Barring divine intervention, it must be something going on in the atmosphere, and the WATER cycle, especially cloud formation, is the only mechanism that seems capable of “doing the job” with any degree of consistency – no way can it be carbon dioxide!
Now, we don’t have an accurate record of moisture levels in the distant past - very difficult to determine. But we do know that during the warm periods, it was generally very wet and humid; and during ice ages, it was quite dry. True, that doesn’t prove anything, but it’s an important clue.
So (allow me to hypothesize a little here), at the end of an ice age (where we are now), there is limited cloud cover and the warming effect of water vapor kicks in. As the planet temperature rises, the ice sheet retreat, reflection is reduced, the exposed land absorbs more heat, the planet continues to warm up, more and more water evaporates, more humidity enters the atmosphere, but the warming effect of moisture remains dominant. Humidity keeps increasing, the cloud cover gradually builds up, and more and more energy is reflected back into space. At some point, the cooling effect of clouds balances out the warming effect of moisture, and the system reaches equilibrium. And it appears that balance is achieved when the global temperature reaches 25°C or so.
If the temperature exceeds that limit, it leads to more evaporation and an increase in cloud cover, and lowers the temperature back down. If the temperature drops below the balance point, it results in a reduction in cloud cover causing the temperature to rise. This may be the “thermostat” we’ve been looking for.
As a side note, the temperature probably reaches equilibrium when the percentage of water in the atmosphere is around 1%, and perhaps as high as 2% (2 to 5 times higher than it is today). Currently, worldwide cloud cover is around 65% - and it would likely be much higher at equilibrium, maybe around 80% (pure conjecture on my part). But most of this cloud cover is above oceans - the average cloud cover over land masses is around 45% (maybe less), that’s probably much lower than it was a few thousand years ago, before deforestation.
From time to time though, every 150 million years or so (that timescale is a little puzzling as well), something apparently disrupts this balance; the most likely trigger is thought to be some change in the geometry of Earth’s orbit or axis, possibly coupled with something else such as a change in inner core rotations, a change in solar activity, continental drift, a large meteorite strike, a period of strong volcanic activity, etc. This may cause the temperature to drop and trigger a different cycle:
The drop in temperature reduces evaporation and cloud formation, resulting in less rain but more snow fall in the high latitudes; this leads to the formation of ice sheets. As those slowly expand, they cover more and more of the land and water. Those white surfaces reflect more of the sun’s energy back into space resulting in even less evaporation. The air gets dryer, and more heat escapes from the planet. It sets up a “feedback loop” and the planet keeps getting colder and colder until it reaches its second equilibrium at around 10°C - and we have an “ice age”. But that low temperature balance point doesn’t seem to be very stable, and the “warm-up” cycle usually doesn’t take too long to “kick in”, and brings the temperature back up to “normal”. Ice ages don’t last very long (geologically speaking).
This is just my own “preliminary” hypothesis and needs further investigating. But it fits the evidence and seems to make sense. I can’t think of anything else that could account for those cycles and apparent upper and lower limits… And that same mechanism likely affects the rate of change during major temperature downturns or upswings (as we’re now experiencing).
Dr. Clauser seems to have reached the same conclusion (from a physicist’s perspective). Here’s a quote from his recent interview on EPOCH TV: “…it is this fluctuation in the cloud cover of the earth that causes a sunlight reflectivity thermostat that controls the climate, controls the temperature of the earth, and stabilizes it very powerfully and very dramatically”.
One fact seems quite clear; water checks all the boxes – it’s the one substance in the atmosphere that has the capability to significantly “affect” the planet’s temperature. And the evidence points to cloud cover as the primary climate “regulator”. No need for “new-physics” or esoteric formulas. Variations in solar activity may be a close second.
Occam’s razor: “The simplest explanation of a phenomenon is more often than not the correct one” – but studies have shown that the public is more likely to believe the more complex account.
Bottom line – It’s all about the clouds...
Joni Mitchell may have had her finger on something…
I've looked at clouds from both sides now
From up and down and still somehow
It's clouds’ illusions I recall
I really don't know clouds, at all…
Both Sides Now (YouTube)
🙂
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5
Human activities and climate change…
That brings us to our original question: What, if anything, have humans been doing that could possibly affect the climate…
Yes, we’ve become “industrialized” and we have been burning a lot of fossil fuel; but, for thousands of years, ever since man began to settle and farm, we’ve also been cutting down trees; huge swaths of forest have been “cleared” for agriculture, cities, roads, industry, cooking, heating, wood products, etc., and the pace has accelerated over the past two or three hundred years. The Sahara and the Middle East for example, “now mostly hot and barren, were once areas of lush vegetation, lakes and rivers, teeming with large wildlife” - The lost forests of the Middle East - Aljazeera, Sept. 2015. And this observation in The Smithsonian, March 2017: “What really turned the Sahara desert from a green oasis Into a wasteland?” “There is strong evidence that by cutting trees and overgrazing the grasses, they were reducing the amount of atmospheric moisture which produces clouds… this may have triggered the end of the humid period more abruptly than can be explained by orbital changes. These nomadic humans also may have used fire as a land management tool, which would have exacerbated the speed at which the desert took hold.”
Haiti has lost about 98% of its native forests since independence in 1804. Even far-north Iceland lost most of its forests - from about 50% tree cover before the Vikings showed up, now down to about 3% - the trees were cut down for habitation, heating, cooking, and boat building.
The discovery of the Americas by Europeans led to a huge spike in deforestation. In the United States, only about 5% of the original native forests remain (as National Forests) - and even those are not safe (“selective” logging is now permitted).
Worldwide, about a third of the virgin forests have now been completely eradicated. Another third or so have been severely degraded by logging and other human activities and are now but a pale shadow of what they used to be. So we’re now left with maybe one third (if that) of the original virgin forests.
And the carnage continues. At least 5 Billion trees are now cut each year (with some estimates as high as 15 Billion). Just to put that into perspective - let’s assume these 5 billion trees have an average trunk diameter of 1ft and length of 30 feet - and we attached those 5 billion trunks end to end and side by side (raft style), we could build a bridge the width of a 10 lane highway from the earth to the moon, every single year! (and the leftover limbs, branches and leaves amount to at least as much biomass). This is absolutely mind boggling!
So humans have had, and still have, a MASSIVE impact on the natural environment. And why does that matter when it comes to climate..? It matters because forests play a vital role in the planet’s water cycle and energy transfer.
The Role of Forests
Solar radiation is absorbed quite evenly by the oceans, and man has done little to change that significantly. But it’s a different story on land.
Because of this obsession with carbon dioxide, the focus is usually on the role forests play in the CO2 cycle. Not enough attention has been directed at how forests affect the planet’s moisture distribution patterns which, in turn, affects the planet’s energy balance and the climate.
Forests absorb a huge amount of solar energy (which is transformed into various forms of living matter), thus keeping much of that energy from reaching and warming the ground; they also encourage cloud formation, rainfall, and further growth. Vegetation also releases humidity back in the air (through evaporation and transpiration) which absorbs heat, adds to cloud cover, and results in even more rain… That extra cloud cover also reflects more solar radiation back to space. It’s a natural cycle, a positive feedback loop that helps cool things down. In other words, the interaction between forests and moisture acts as a powerful temperature “damper” and cooling mechanism. Forests also absorb carbon dioxide, produce oxygen, depollute the air, stabilize the soil, help reduce the risk of flooding, and provide habitat for fauna. Native (untouched) forests also have better resistance to forest fires and recover more quickly. By destroying (or “thinning out”) most of our forests, we interfered with all that in a big way.
Decomposition/oxidation (part of the natural forest life cycle), does release some heat, but at such low levels and slow rate that its effect on temperature is immediately cancelled by the cooling effect of evaporation from the same moist decomposing matter.
When we cut down forests, we expose the ground and other surfaces to the sun’s direct rays. On a sunny day, the ground temperature in a grassy field or farmland can be as much as 20C° (36F°) higher than the ground temperature in the woods nearby (readings taken 6 inches below the surface) - and that temperature differential is even greater in built up areas. This hot ground heats up the air in the daytime, and keeps warming it up at night as well. With the air temperature kept above the dew point, cloud formation and rainfall is drastically reduced, and most of the moisture held in the atmosphere simply moves on to a cooler area, perhaps all the way back to the ocean. True, deforested land has a higher albedo, thus reflecting more heat back out into space, but not enough to outweigh the cooling effect of forested land and cloud cover.
Loss of forests therefore sets into motion a potentially disastrous string of events: Less vegetation >> warmer dryer air >> reduced cloud cover >> less rainfall >> groundwater and aquifer depletion >> droughts >> wind erosion >> loss of farmland >> further rise in ground temperatures >> deserts (although not all deserts are anthropogenic). Tapping into groundwater is a temporary solution and only delays the inevitable. And when it does rain, the rain is warmer, it flows freely picking up even more heat from the ground resulting in warmer runoff, warmer rivers, and eventually it contributes to ocean warming. And this has been going on for centuries. The end result globally is a warmer climate. And if the planet is already in a “natural” warm-up phase (as it is now), this would tend to accelerate the process - you could call it “climate change”.
In a nutshell, forests absorb heat, encourage the formation of clouds, and help keep the planet cooler. Deforestation does the opposite. Yes, most climate scientists do agree that forests and cloud cover affect the climate, but few seem to fully appreciate the synergistic relationship between the two, and the strong link between climate and deforestation (or perhaps have chosen to turn a blind eye to it). This natural interaction DOES explain how human activities may have impacted the climate over the past few hundred years.
Food for thought: Regarding that seemingly “preset” temperature limit of around 25°C… It may be worth pointing out that, in the past, heavy vegetation likely played a key role in stabilizing the temperature at that level. Without that forest cover, who knows by how much we could overshoot that limit… And without enough vegetation to absorb all that degassing CO2, could CO2 levels also get out of control and exceed what humans and other species can tolerate..? And could degassing oxygen from warmer oceans render them unfit for marine life?
We do have a geological precedent as to what can happen if there is not enough vegetation to temper the climate. Looking back 250-300 million years at the Karoo ice age, we see that most of the land vegetation had died off because the fern-like plants of the Carboniferous did not survive the cold and dry conditions; coincidentally, the super-continent of Pangea was coming together. So we had a vast expanse of land with practically no vegetation. Perfect conditions for runaway warming. The planet’s temperature rose rapidly and overshot its normal high limit (probably well into the 30°C+ range). Those extreme temperatures were the likely cause of “The Great Dying”, when over 90% of land and marine species went extinct. Finally the rains came, likely triggered by widespread volcanic eruptions; and with a moisture-laden atmosphere, it rained practically non-stop for one or two million years (the Carnian pluvial episode). The planet cooled down and things settled back to normal with new forms of vegetation taking hold - animals evolved and thrived in that environment – this was the beginning of the Triassic-Jurassic period and the age of dinosaurs that led to the world as we know it today.
A side note on how the bulk of the atmosphere is actually warmed up… It cannot be radiation since more than 99% of the atmosphere is made up of gases that are transparent to radiation; on the other hand, all gases can absorb heat by conduction; and as we saw earlier, energy can be transmitted from RAGs to surrounding gases trough molecular contact. Heat is also transferred to the atmosphere through phase change - evaporation draws heat from the oceans, condensation (cloud formation) releases that heat into the atmosphere. A fourth, less significant mechanism is related to aerosols - fine particles absorb radiation and warm up, just like all solids; those particles then warm up the air molecules around them by conduction; but they also reflect radiation which results in less energy reaching the planet’s surface.
But it’s the temperature of the planet itself (the ground and the oceans) that determines long-term temperatures (the climate) - that’s where energy is effectively “stored”. The atmosphere, because of its low mass and density, simply cannot “hold” very much energy – case in point: the very rapid air temperature drop in equatorial deserts from as high as 50°C in the daytime, to as low as -5°C at night. A warming atmosphere is only an indication that the planet is warming up. Note that little heat is transmitted by conduction from the atmosphere to the planet, except where bare land or structures are exposed (warm air in contact with water surfaces or moist vegetation only encourage more evaporation and phase-change planet cooling).
The atmosphere controls how much energy flows to and from the planet’s surface, and therefore how much heat is added to or removed from the “battery” (which determines the climate). The atmosphere (along with the sun’s orientation, ocean currents, etc.) determines the weather.
Deforestation tends to accelerate long-term warming trends by allowing more energy to reach (and get stored in) the ground; reforestation would help slow down that trend.
Now, considerably more heat is stored in the oceans than is stored on land (~90%), but the heat absorption rate of oceans is nearly constant, and human activities have little effect on it, so we can leave that one out of the equation. The one significant anthropogenic variable is land mass heat absorption. Furthermore, deforested, hot, dry surfaces warm up the air very effectively, leading to more severe local heatwaves.
Urban planners are beginning to realize that trees do help cool things down. Many large cities (Paris, Singapore, London, etc.) have embarked on extensive tree planting programs to help lower the temperature; and climatologists do agree that reforestation on a global scale would help “fight” climate change - but they’re still fixated on carbon dioxide because, of course, 97%... So governments still focus most of their efforts (and waste our money) on fighting CO2.
If trees can cool off cities, then forests can cool off the planet…
The World Economic Forum: “Forests are critical to the health of the planet, but their degradation and loss is destabilizing natural systems on a scale unseen in human history.” "Conserving and restoring degraded forest landscapes is essential to combating global climate change and preventing biodiversity loss.”
Biodiversity
Forests are not just a bunch of trees; they harbor whole ecosystems. So, aside from affecting the climate, destroying forests results in a serious reduction in biodiversity – we are now in the midst of the world’s sixth mass extinction in over 600 million years; and losing species at a rate comparable, and possibly even surpassing, that of “The Great Dying”, 250 million years ago, when more than 90% of all species were wiped out. And this one is manmade. We’re “driving one million species to extinction”, mostly thru expansion of farmland - Nature.
Yes, humans are meant to be here, we are part of nature and at the pinnacle of evolution. But let’s face it, we have become the most destructive species that ever lived on the face of the earth, maybe not so much by ill intent, but by negligence and lack of awareness. And if we don’t smarten up soon, we may be next on the list… Nature is not just “nice to have”, it’s our life-support system. This is serious - we need to change direction if we don’t want to fall victim to our own success…
The Guardian: “A new major report by the World Wildlife Federation involving 59 scientists from across the globe concludes that the vast and growing consumption of food and resources by the global population is destroying the web of life, billions of years in the making, upon which human society ultimately depends for clean air, water, food, and everything else. ‘We are sleepwalking towards the edge of a cliff’ said Mike Barrett, director of science and conservation at WWF.”
So, if we’re serious about “saving the planet” we’d better start tackling that; we need to stop encroaching on natural habitats, and embark on aggressive reforestation and restoration programs. Rich countries need to put in place incentives that will encourage the others to get on board. We may be sitting at the top of the pyramid right now, but if we keep removing its building blocks, the whole thing may collapse. We have to be careful that our extraordinary success doesn’t spell our demise.
“Nature” deserves our respect… We are surrounded by millions of amazing creatures, each one of them hundreds of millions of years in the making - and many even display feelings, emotions, and a certain degree of intelligence! Yes, we are one of them, but it may be somewhat short-sighted on our part to take over the whole planet at the expense of all the others. In the early years of Homo Sapiens, being clever and inventive helped our species hunt efficiently, survive, and defend itself - with a sparse population, this had little effect on the survival of other species. Then humans began to settle and “clear land” for agriculture and animal breeding; and as the population grew, we needed more and more land, resulting in a gradual loss of habitat for other animals. Hunting is still a factor in some areas, and animals still fear us (Nature Africa), but loss of habitat is the primary cause of the dramatic loss of species we’ve seen over the past few hundred years - and it’s not just a loss of species, it’s also a sharp drop in the population of the remaining species. For example, antelopes are still around, but their number has dwindled from an estimated 35 million to less than 1 million now. And then, sometimes we kill just because we can, or for the fun of it (e.g. the near extinction of the buffalo in North America in the 1,800’s), or for ridiculous reasons (like catching millions of sharks every year, cutting off their fins, and throwing the bodies back in the ocean to die a slow cruel death… and for what..? To make “show-off” soup! - still going on today). It’s time we change our ways. We must learn to live in harmony with the rest of nature, not just exploit it…
And from a philosophical angle, we need to stop acting as if we “own” the planet. It doesn’t exist for us alone; other species are not there just to entertain, serve, or feed us; they are here in their own right, and they all play an important role in our ecosystem. We are all interdependent cohabitants.
Actually, much more than cohabitants - we and everything else in the universe are ONE. The impression that we are separate from what’s outside our own skin is but an illusion, a comfortable mind trick useful for survival; somewhat like the belief that our body is made up of solid and liquid “matter”, when in fact, at the sub-atomic level, we and all other living (and non-living) things are essentially made up of umpteen trillions of quantum energy packets*, superbly organized, continuously interacting with each other with some unknown purpose. The forces that “make us up” have somehow “morphed” out of, and will at some point morph back into, the apparently infinite “whole” - a mind-bending and somewhat unsettling notion, but in a way, it’s elegantly and beautifully simple! (*E=mc2 - energy and mass are interchangeable)
Renowned Canadian astrophysicist and philosopher Hubert Reeves put it a little more poetically… “Nous ne sommes que de la poussière d’étoiles…” (We are merely stardust…)
And, as some philosophers, scientists, and most “primitive” tribes believe, there seems to be a kind of consciousness, a kind of spirit embedded within all that exists. Our “consciousness” is but an incarnation of that spirit. Einstein (who was not a religious man) wrote: “A spirit is manifest in the laws of the universe - a spirit vastly superior to that of man, and one in the face of which we, with our modest powers, must feel humble.”
So, if only we could broaden our self-perception to embody everything and everyone around us; if only we could open our minds and realize that WE are The Environment, that IT is US and WE are IT, then taking good care of it, living in harmony with it, and even getting along with each other should come say… “naturally”; and self-esteem would take on a whole different meaning.
Yes, let’s embrace our natural selfishness, maybe even hold it as a virtue, providing we accept who we really are, and act accordingly… Let’s take better care of ourselves… 🙂
And if you’re “spiritually inclined” and searching for “God”, you don’t have to look very far - just look at yourself, look around you, look at the universe, that’s IT… the amazing, ultimate Morph! We can all truthfully say, with pride and humility, “I am God”. We’ve morphed out of IT, and we’re looking at IT for a short, precious period of time. You could say that each of us is a unique “point of view”.
And back to our little planet… it comes down to this: Humankind has two important “issues” to address - climate and biodiversity; fortunately, it essentially boils down to one straightforward solution: forest restoration - it’s all tightly interwoven. The “greens”, the “eco activists”, the environmentalists need to turn their attention away from fighting fossil fuel, away from pushing so-called “renewables” and “green energy”, and re-focus their efforts on their original green agenda: nature / trees / flora / fauna - restoring as much as possible of our lost ecosystems. Simpler. Cheaper. Easier to monitor. And most of all, it works..!
Check out the dramatic change (video) when a couple in Brazil decided to replant the forest on their large ranch: “The results couldn’t be more stunning!… In just 20 years, the animals and birds came back, the rain has returned, the springs are flowing again, THE TEMPERATURE HAS DROPPED, AND THE CLIMATE HAS CHANGED DRASTICALLY”. This was a “full scale” experiment with real results. So, although it may take centuries for forests to fully mature, it doesn’t take very long* to begin to see tangible, positive changes. This little miracle could be replicated all over the world. Every country should be encouraged to embark on a vigorous forest regeneration program - all it takes is the will to do it. (* A bit longer in northern latitudes).
And on a larger scale, Nepal has done a commendable job at recovering some of its lost forests, nearly doubling it’s forest cover in about 30 years, and now reaping the benefits: rainfall back to normal, fewer floods and landslides, and the wildlife is coming back - giving tourism a boost.
You could look at reforestation as a planet makeover
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6
Roadmap to a promising future…
There’s still time to change direction. But we need to get serious and stop wasting our efforts and resources on projects that are based on unsettled science. It’s time we stop wildly swinging our swords in the air at an imaginary enemy like a bunch of Don Quixote’s, fooling ourselves into thinking we’re saving the planet!
This mass hysteria about “carbon pollution” has to end!
It won’t be easy - there needs to be more awareness, a concerted multi-national effort and a serious shift in priorities - and scientists who don’t agree with the prevailing orthodoxy need to make themselves heard. There already are some small steps being taken in the right direction, such as the “World Climate Declaration”, a Clintel group initiative, and the goals adopted at the UN Biodiversity Conference (COP 15 – Montreal). And “traditional” climate change organizations do agree that forests should be preserved, although for a different reason (they absorb CO2 and produce oxygen).
And there are signs leaders are beginning to pay more attention to nature restoration; case in point, the recent European agreement to preserve or restore natural habitats and biodiversity in European countries.
This is not to say that we should completely abandon our move away from fossil fuel dependence; eventually oil and gas will become very scarce anyway, so we should treat fossil fuel as a precious resource and use it judiciously. But the big rush to “electrify” everything before the technology has matured and the supply grid is ready doesn’t make much sense.
And large scale solar and wind energy generation is a complete waste of money and resources (details), especially when coupled to battery storage; overall, they only have a negative impact on the environment (mining, manufacturing, land use, eventual waste disposal, never ending replacements, wildlife disruption, natural environment destruction, and they really spoil the view). Plus, they do absolutely nothing to cool the planet (in fact, quite the opposite). It would make a lot more sense (and cost much less) to plant trees instead, or at least allow the forests to regrow.
I believe nuclear (and someday, maybe fusion), is the one form of power generation that could realistically meet our energy needs in the near future, with the least negative impact on the environment. It takes up about 75 times less surface area to produce the same amount of electricity as solar and about 350 times less than wind, and it’s not weather dependent (plus, for the carbophobics, it’s nearly carbon free). Small, modern, well located and well managed nuclear plants are as safe, if not safer, than most other forms of power generation. The small amount of radioactive “waste” produced is not difficult to dispose of safely – and new technology makes it possible to use a good portion of that waste in stage 2 and 3 generators (as they already do in France). That waste Plutonium could also be used up in Thorium nuclear reactors when the challenges in using Thorium instead of Uranium are overcome. In other words, stored nuclear “waste” can be seen as a future source of nuclear fuel as technologies evolve. And nuclear propulsion has been proven safe and efficient for navy ships and submarines, so in the future - if costs can be brought down - the technology could be applied to commercial shipping, saving millions of tons of petroleum - as well as reducing pollution from burning heavy fuel oil.
Geothermal, probably the cleanest and most reliable energy source, is showing some promise (in light of recent developments in deep drilling) - and the technology could be used to easily and economically convert existing coal and gas powered plants (already connected to the grid) to geothermal. The same technology could also help extract oil more economically and cleanly from oil sands (especially in-situ production).
Hydrogen is another option, but producing it by steam-methane reforming or electrolysis is not energy-efficient; on the other hand, extracting natural hydrogen might someday prove to be an excellent alternative or adjunct to natural gas. It’s estimated there could be as much as 100,000 megatons of accessible natural hydrogen deposits - enough to power the world with clean energy for hundreds of years. GEOSCIENTIST Magazine : “Natural hydrogen has the potential to cause the biggest disruption to the global energy system in the coming decades”.
But for the time being, until enough nuclear (and perhaps geothermal) plants can be built to meet the demand, natural gas, methane, oil, and even coal (pulverized - with enhanced combustion and exhaust “scrubbing” technologies, or even better, by switching to gasification or liquefaction ) will have to handle most of the load.
Burning wood or taking up precious agricultural land for “biofuel” crops when there’s still plenty of fuel the ground is simply absurd – doesn’t make sense no matter how you slice it (note that the “fossil” fuel in the ground is also, technically speaking, “biofuel”, and natural). Curtailing plastics or synthetics in favor of wood, paper or cotton only encourages deforestation (the problem with plastics is primarily a public education and waste management issue). Developing better biodegradable plastics for disposable items would help as well. Now, we still need wood products, and probably always will, but we should limit their use to a minimum, and promote well managed regenerative logging. All lumbering waste should be transformed into useful products such as engineered wood, cardboard, and paper (not burned or left to rot). We should also recycle as much paper and wood products as possible (including wood from demolished structures). And we must put an end to slash-and-burn agriculture.
As for introducing aerosols into the atmosphere to reflect sunlight, it may have its place in the future as a “last ditch effort” - if things reach a critical point. But for now I feel it’s premature, expensive, and could be risky; our money and efforts would be far better spent on reforestation and reducing (truly harmful) pollution. In the meantime, research into that technology does make sense.
One more point regarding the gas and oil industry. Our economy is still largely dependent on fossil fuels, and will be for quite some time (unless we’re willing to push industrialization back a couple of hundred years). It’s a fact that cannot be ignored. Of course, we have to make sure extraction and transport is done responsibly - but having oil and gas companies as invested partners in the gradual transition to other energy sources can only lead to better solutions. In the meantime, burning fossil fuels is simply releasing some of the CO2 and energy that was absorbed by plants millions of years ago – a form of long-term recycling if you will: we use the energy and byproducts to improve our lives, and plants reuse the CO2 (helping forest restoration and crop yields). If that CO2 hadn’t been trapped in rock formations at the time, it would have been returned to the atmosphere long ago. Curtailing fossil fuels prematurely and weakening our economy will only make it more difficult to tackle the real challenges we’ll be facing in the future.
And what about all the “petrochemicals” that come from the fractional distillation of oil and gas and are essential in the production of fertilizers, plastics, lubricants, solvents, synthetics, and countless more. Say we extract fossil fuel exclusively for those uses (on which we’ve become totally dependent), then what should we do with the unused fuel fractions if we don’t burn them? Put them back into the ground? Fill up abandoned mines..? Store them in gigantic tanks..? Anti-CO2 “climate activists” need a reality check! Most of what they own (including the clothes they wear), and nearly everything they depend on, even their easy life and all the free time they have (to demonstrate), they owe to capitalism and the fossil fuel industry, the very things they’re hell-bent on destroying. Incidentally, linking climate change to fossil fuels all but guaranteed that it would become a political issue at the expense of balanced scientific pursuit.
Just had a thought… We should have a yearly “Fossil Fuel Day” to celebrate all that we’ve enjoyed over the past couple of hundred years because of fossil fuels, and to thank mother nature for such a bounty. I would be among the first to put on a party hat. 🙂
And no, I’m not and have never been associated with, worked for, owned shares in, or received funding from, any fossil fuel company - I wish…
The (real) inconvenient truth
All this does require a change in focus, and a well-informed population. We need to realize that, because of our dominance and technological capabilities, we have a special responsibility when it comes to the planet’s well-being. We need to take our role as the planet’s caretakers very seriously.
Now, the main driver of deforestation has been the need for more land to feed, house and support more humans. Deforestation started about 12,000 years ago when hunter-gatherers began to settle down and clear forests to grow crops and build permanent shelters. That has continued unabated until now - and over the past couple of hundred years, the pace has accelerated wildly in order to sustain an exploding population. Furthermore, the great strides in industrialization and mechanization gave humans the tools to do it super efficiently. So here we are today with maybe a third, if that, of native forests left.
Yes, we could improve our farming methods so as to reduce land use; we could expand vertical farming; and we could reduce our consumption of meat or switch to cultivated meat. But if the population continues to grow, that’s just kicking the can a little farther down the road, and we still wouldn’t be able to regenerate our forests.
Mining, industry, habitation, transportation, etc. also require more and more land; and we also cut trees for construction, furniture, paper, cardboard, etc. Again, if we wish to maintain our standard of living, these are difficult to reduce substantially, even at current population levels, and downright impossible if we want the less advantaged to enjoy the same conveniences as those in the so-called “developed” countries…
As for fish and seafood… after centuries of overfishing, we’re rapidly running out of those (and upsetting the oceans’ ecosystems in the process) – and, as we’re beginning to find out, fish farms only give rise to new problems. Only a drastic reduction in demand would give the oceans a chance to recover.
And let’s not forget that we are highly dependent on the health of the oceans in other ways. For instance, roughly 2/3 of the oxygen we breathe comes from marine plants and plankton (the rest mainly from forests). Pollution and overfishing are putting the oceans’ delicate biosystems dangerously out of balance, and as we saw earlier, we’re well on our way to destroying the remaining forests as well. So if nothing is done to reverse the trends, much of life on earth may be at risk.
You see where I’m heading… HUMAN POPULATION - the really big elephant in the room most try to ignore. Consider this – it took Homo Sapiens about 300,000 years to reach the one Billion mark (that threshold was reached in the early 1800’s); and then only 200 more years to boost it EIGHT FOLD to 8 Billion, and still increasing at a rate of about 160,000 per day (accounting for births and deaths) World Population Clock - If you’re looking for a “hockey stick”, there it is! - It simply cannot continue like this; otherwise, our future might look a bit like in the film “Soylent Green”.
Whether you agree or not with anything I’ve said before, it should obvious that we have a serious population problem; and if we don’t get a handle on it, not much else will matter. As one French expression goes... “We need to turn on our head lights!”
So the core of the problem is not that there’s too much Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere, it’s that there are there are simply too many of us on the planet..!
BTW, there were concerns about overpopulation as early as 1798 when Thomas Robert Malthus wrote his essays on “The Principle of Population”; then in 1968, Paul Ehrlich came out with his book “The Population Bomb”, the main inspiration for the 1973 film “Soylent Green”, a fictitious story line loosely based on facts. This should have been a wakeup call, but unfortunately the message was not taken seriously, mainly because Ehrlich got a little carried away with his doomsday predictions. Thirty years later, here comes Al Gore with his “An Inconvenient Truth”, an allegedly factual documentary based on fictitious science, and (nearly) everyone swallows it, hook, line and sinker, and the focus turned to Carbon Dioxide.
It’s worth pointing out that fossil-fuel-sourced fertilizers and fossil-fuel-run machinery played a major role in deforestation and “enabled” the population explosion – so the oil industry IS partly responsible for putting the health of our planet at risk, but not in the way most people think…
Yes, it does seem that population growth is beginning to taper off – it’s a hopeful sign (although many will disagree), but it’s not nearly enough. If we want a truly sustainable, “balanced” ecosystem; if we want to save what’s left of other species; if we want a healthy, vibrant and diverse biosphere; if we want to reduce the risk of runaway warming; if we want humans all over the globe to have a shot at a peaceful, comfortable, enjoyable, satisfying life; then the only logical solution is to aim, not just for a leveling of the population, but for a drastic reduction.
We need to significantly reduce humankind’s impact on the planet..! Overpopulation is the core problem.
So, forget our “carbon footprint”, we should be concerned about our actual physical footprint. And those who are still on the rickety carbon bandwagon can take comfort in the fact that population attrition would help reduce our carbon footprint as well. And this is not “disrespecting” life - on the contrary, if it allows us to improve the human condition and nurse the biosphere back to health, it’s honoring life - all life!
As a side note, I have to mention here the childish posts I’ve seen all over the internet claiming, for example, that “all of the 8 billion humans on earth today, standing shoulder to shoulder and chest to back, would fit in a space the size of New York city - so there’s obviously no overpopulation problem”. This is simply absurd - seems they have absolutely no idea how much space and resources are needed, and what impact that has on the planet, just to feed and house all those humans, let alone enjoy the modern conveniences we’re accustomed to.
Now remember, the planet has been gradually warming up for the past 20,000 years or so, and this will likely continue (with the occasional up or down swings). I do believe we could dampen the rise significantly by reclaiming a sizeable portion of our lost forests, but I doubt we can prevent it; there are forces at play that we have yet to fully understand. So, barring some major geological, solar or cosmic event that would cause a significant downturn in temperature, we have to get used to the idea and prepare for it... In the distant future, as the planet warms up and ocean levels continue to rise, we will need to gradually abandon low lying and equatorial regions and migrate to higher grounds and cooler latitudes, and we will lose some of our current arable lands. All this should be manageable, providing the planet is not overcrowded, and our ecosystem is healthy with enough “free” space for ALL species to adapt.
Side note: Since reptiles tend to fare much better than mammals in very warm conditions, in the distant future, the dominant species may very well be some kind of reptilian humanoid - just a thought 🙂
I know, “depopulation” is a VERY tough sell; even a slight decrease in population rattles the cage of most politicians, economists, financiers and businessmen. And aside from political and economic challenges, there are other issues such as the natural urge to procreate, family needs, traditions, cultural values, religious beliefs, etc. etc...
The UN lists 17 "Sustainable Development Goals" on its website, all laudable aspirations; but no suggestion anywhere that overpopulation might be a problem - as if it’s a taboo subject. Population control should be THE #1 goal - I believe it’s a prerequisite to reaching all the other goals on that list! Their current anti-carbon policies can only lead to standard of living decline and more poverty.
Regrettably, the areas most likely to resist “getting on board” are those that have contributed the most to the “explosion” in population in the 20th century (Asia and Africa); but if they did, it would not only greatly improve the health of the planet, they would likely experience the greatest long-term positive impact on the wellbeing of their own citizenry as well. And we’re not talking euthanasia, enforced sterilization, or any such drastic measures - all that’s needed is a gradual change in social norms and a shift in priorities. And the so-called developed countries need to do their part by reducing their per-capita consumption and waste.
The transition from a largely “growth-driven” linear economy to a kind of circular economy will likely be a bit rocky, and we will probably have to re-think our approach to retirement and healthcare. But once past those hurdles, the system should stabilize. The free market (providing it’s allowed to function reasonably unhindered) will find solutions - the development of robotics and AI is a good beginning. I’m inclined to believe that bottom-up free-market economies will likely adapt quicker and better than top down socialist-style systems where innovation is normally stymied...
And let’s not forget the wealth and infrastructure that’s been accumulating over the decades; with a reduced population, that excess capital might actually create new opportunities. But all that is for economists to figure out. I believe that if we can get our act together, the human race could have an amazing and exciting future.
Healthy planet - Healthy humans..!
Isn’t that what we should strive for… for every child on earth to have a good shot at a decent life on a beautiful, healthy, showcase planet..? In order to reach that goal, we need to start behaving a little more like Homo sapiens.
Here is a thoughtful article from Scientific American on the desirability of “de-growth”
And what would be an ideal human population..? My best guess, for a planet our size and landmass (which will inevitably be gradually reduced by rising sea levels) is around 2 billion; that would mean returning to our 1950’s population levels. Yes, not easy to achieve, but much easier than relocating 8, 9 or 10 billion humans to some other planet... (Note that Europe’s population is currently close to what it was in the 50’s, proving that an increase in population is not necessary to maintain or improve our standard of living)
This would allow us to “reforest” no-longer needed spaces and low-yield farmlands, maybe even re-claim some deserts, allow the oceans to recover, and eventually reach a healthy balance between our consumption & lifestyle requirements and the rest of nature.
The conclusions of a recent study commissioned by The Club of Rome offers some glimmer of hope. Quote: “If current trends continue, the world population will reach a high of 8.8 billion before the middle of the century, then fall rapidly to 6 billion, far below United Nations’ estimates. This will allow humanity to focus on equality and well-being rather than on per-capita income growth. We simply cannot continue with ‘business as usual’ if we want our grand-children to live on a sustainable and equitable planet.”
And of course, let’s not forget the all-powerful, successful, well-established, anti-CO2, anti-fossil-fuel, anti-capitalism movement. No one wants to admit they were wrong or led astray; no one wants to lose face, least of all respectable organizations, educators, journalists and politicians…
Tolstoy: “I know that most men, including those at ease with problems of the greatest complexity, can seldom accept even the simplest and most obvious truth, if it would oblige them to admit the falsity of conclusions which they have delighted in explaining to colleagues, which they have proudly taught to others, and which they have woven, thread by thread, into their lives...”
And the mind has a tendency to “select” evidence that seems to confirm one’s beliefs, and block out anything that contradicts them. A good scientist needs to be willing to consider alternatives, even when it feels… “uncomfortable”.
So it won’t be easy; it has to be done smartly and tactfully. In democracies, it means first convincing the general public. Sadly, whole generations are now growing up in large cities, completely isolated from, and with little attachment to, the natural world; they’re more emotionally connected to the virtual world and man-made landscapes. Journalists, online “influencers”, educators, and dedicated organizations are on the front line; and they must put out the message. Politicians will only act they have voter support.
Supporting forest regeneration shouldn’t be a tough sell – it’s difficult to object to trees; and anti-carbon legislations could be quietly phased out. The real challenge is convincing the population (in all countries) that we’d be better off if there were a lot fewer of us - that goes against very strong cultural roadblocks…
Real change usually begins with some kind of “grassroots” movement. The first step is to get the conversation going (an open conversation) - and it needs to start with social media… And scientists who may have been standing on the sidelines must gather their courage and get into the fray. In light of the latest election results, both in the US and in Europe, I think the public is ready for a change in direction.
This is my own small contribution - one man’s opinion - hopefully palatable food for thought.
On good days, I feel maybe we can pull it off - but then again, I’ve always been a bit of a dreamer…
Cheers!
JC
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